If you have been tracking income investments in recent years, private credit has likely stood out. Strong yields, institutional participation, and growing allocations from family offices and high net worth investors have made it a prominent feature in many alternative portfolios. At the same time, recent developments, including rising default rates in certain segments and increased scrutiny on deal structures, have prompted closer examination of the asset class and exploration into other income-focused solutions. A broader range of income generating instruments exists, each with distinct drivers of return, risk considerations, and liquidity characteristics.

Here's a practical look at five of them.

1. Commercial papers

Commercial Papers (CPs) are short-term debt instruments issued by corporations to fund working capital and near-term obligations, typically with a tenor of up to 12 months. Issued on a senior, unsecured basis, they represent a direct obligation of the issuer and tend to sit at the upper portion of the priority stack in repayment terms.

CPs offer a relatively straightforward proposition: defined maturity, predictable yield, and exposure to established corporate names. Because they're short-dated and have a locked-in interest rate, they are generally less sensitive to interest rate movements due to their short tenor, offering a practical advantage in uncertain rate environments.

The key consideration is issuer quality. As CPs are unsecured, credit analysis matters. Investors are extending trust to the issuer's ability to refinance or repay, so understanding the issuing entity's financial health and liquidity position is essential.

2. Fixed coupon notes

Fixed Coupon Notes (FCNs) are structured products that provide periodic coupon payments over a defined term, subject to specified conditions linked to an underlying asset, such as a stock, basket of equities, or an index.

Coupons are typically paid if the underlying asset remains above a pre-defined level. If this condition is not met, the final payout may differ from the initial principal, depending on the product structure.

As a result, FCNs combine elements of income generation with exposure to market performance. The coupon payments reflect this structure, where income is conditional on the behaviour of the underlying asset rather than guaranteed in all scenarios. Key considerations include the choice of underlying asset, the barrier level, and the observation structure. Investors should also assess how the product behaves under different market scenarios, particularly in the event of a significant drawdown in the underlying, which can affect the final payout. Depending on the structure, investors may be exposed to partial or full capital loss if the underlying asset performs poorly.

3. Private credit

Private credit refers to non-bank lending to companies, typically through direct loans, and spans a wide range of strategies across the capital structure.

These may include senior secured lending, unitranche structures, and subordinated debt, each with different risk return characteristics. According to Fitch Ratings, the U.S. private credit default rate reached 5.8% in January 2026 on a trailing twelve month basis, with smaller issuers accounting for a larger share of defaults.¹ In contrast, Proskauer’s Private Credit Default Index reported a 2.46% default rate for senior secured and unitranche loans in Q4 2025.²

These differences highlight that private credit is not a uniform category. Outcomes depend on factors such as borrower quality, deal structure, collateral, and manager approach.

Income from private credit is primarily generated through interest payments on loans. As many private credit instruments are structured with floating rates, periods of elevated interest rates tend to increase income potential, all else being equal. In some structures, fees and payment‑in‑kind (PIK) features may supplement returns, though the mix between cash and non‑cash income varies by deal. The income profile is also influenced by position in the capital structure: senior secured loans typically offer more predictable cash flows, while subordinated or mezzanine debt may provide higher yields in exchange for greater risk exposure.

4. Private real estate income strategies

Private real estate income strategies involve investments in non-listed property assets, typically accessed through institutional grade funds or structures.

Unlike publicly listed REITs, which are traded on exchanges, private real estate investments are valued based on underlying asset performance rather than daily market sentiment.

Income is primarily generated through rental distributions from properties such as logistics facilities, residential units, or commercial buildings, while capital appreciation may contribute to longer term returns.

Research tracking U.S. private real estate over the past 20 years suggests that income from the asset class has historically compared favorably to traditional equities and bonds over the same period.³ Yet, factors such as leverage, sector exposure, and liquidity constraints remain relevant considerations before investing in the asset class.

5. Systematic income strategies

Systematic income strategies use rules-based approaches to generate income, often through derivatives or options-based frameworks.

One example is a covered call strategy, where an investor holds an underlying asset and sells call options against it to collect premiums. This approach generates income while limiting some potential upside if the asset is appreciated significantly.

These strategies may also incorporate valuation or market signals to guide exposure. For instance, the Shiller CAPE ratio compares current market prices to inflation adjusted earnings over a 10-year period, providing a longer-term perspective on valuation. ⁴ Research has shown that such measures can offer insight into expected returns over multiyear horizons. ⁵

Rather than relying solely on manager discretion, systematic approaches aim to apply consistent rules in balancing income generation with market exposure. Key considerations include the trade-off between income generation and participation in upside, particularly in trending markets where capped strategies may underperform. Investors should also evaluate how the underlying rules are constructed and stress-tested, as systematic approaches are only as robust as the signals and parameters they rely on. Costs, including transaction costs from frequent rebalancing and options pricing in different volatility environments, can also affect net returns.

The bigger picture

Income investing has never really been a single-instrument story. What's changed is that more of these instruments are now accessible to accredited investors who want to build a portfolio with genuine breadth, not just concentrated exposure to whichever asset class is currently in fashion.

The investors best positioned to weather different market conditions tend to be the ones who understand each instrument on its own terms: what drives the yield, where the risk sits, and how each piece interacts with the rest of their portfolio.

References:

¹Fitch Ratings / Funds Society. "U.S. Private Credit Default Rate Continues to Climb." March 2026. https://www.fundssociety.com/en/news/alternatives/u-s-private-credit-default-rate-continues-to-climb/

²Proskauer Rose LLP. "Private Credit Default Index: Q4 2025." January 2026. https://www.proskauer.com/report/proskauers-private-credit-default-index-reveals-rate-of-246-for-q4-2025

³Invesco / Institutional Investor. "The Historical Benefits of US Private Real Estate." November 2025. https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/sponsored-content/historical-benefits-us-private-real-estate

⁴Shiller, Robert J. "U.S. Stock Markets 1871-Present and CAPE Ratio." Yale University. http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm

⁵Morningstar. "P-CAPE: A Better Way for Investors to Estimate Future Returns." July 2024. https://www.morningstar.com/markets/improving-cape-10

Disclaimer: This page is for general informational purposes only and has not been independently verified to ensure its accuracy and fairness. This page does not constitute any advice or recommendation from ADDX or any of its affiliates. Please consult your own professional advisors about the suitability of any investment product/securities/ instruments for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. No representation, warranty or other assurances of any kind, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness, adequacy, reliability validity or availability of any information in this article. Under no circumstance shall ADDX have any liability to the reader for any loss or damage of any kind incurred as a result of the use or reliance on any information provided in this page. This page may not be modified, reproduced, copied, distributed, in whole or in part and no commercial use or benefit may be derived from this article without the prior written permission of ADDX. ADDX reserve all rights to this page.

The alternative investments space in Singapore has grown significantly over the past few years. EAMs and family offices are increasingly being asked by their clients to go beyond listed equities and bonds into private markets, hedge funds, structured products, and more.

The challenge is rarely appetite. It is access, economics, and operational simplicity.

Here is how ADDX is built to work with professional investors, including external asset managers (EAMs) and family offices (FOs) managing money on behalf of others.

A single platform for multi-asset access at scale

Running an EAM or family office means your time is spent on client relationships and investment decisions - not on navigating multiple fund platforms, custodians, and intermediaries.

ADDX brings a range of asset classes onto a single platform. Fixed income, private credit, hedge funds, commercial paper, private equity secondaries, and structured products are all accessible in one place, alongside a derivatives capability being added in the coming months.

The fund shelf includes strategies from Hamilton Lane, Franklin Templeton, Schroders, names that EAMs and family offices are already familiar with and in many cases already allocating to through other channels. Having them consolidated in one place, with a single operational process, reduces the administrative burden significantly for firms where the investment team is lean.

This is not about replacing existing relationships. It is about having a more efficient way to execute across asset classes without multiplying the operational complexity each time.

This broad shelf is just one part of a broader capability brought together under ADDX Advantage, the platform’s B2B2C solution for EAMs and family offices. By integrating onboarding, execution, and portfolio management into a unified workflow, it supports a more efficient and scalable operating model. Through advisor-linked investor accounts, both relationship managers and their clients can transact seamlessly end-to-end on a fully digitised platform.

Structured products and derivatives: customisable, fast, and transparently priced

For EAMs and family offices, structured products are typically executed through established bank relationships. However, what happens after execution is often less efficient and less streamlined.

Coupon payments, barrier events, and early redemption notifications are still commonly tracked through a mix of emails, PDFs, and manual updates. This can make it harder to maintain a clear, real-time view across multiple client positions, especially when managing portfolios at scale or while on the move.

ADDX addresses this gap by bringing post-trade lifecycle tracking into a single, centralised platform. EAMs and family offices can monitor key product events directly in-app, with timely updates on coupon observations, trigger events, and redemptions. This reduces reliance on fragmented communication channels and helps ensure nothing is missed.

Alongside this, ADDX operates a structured product capability across a panel of more than five direct leading global issuers. For bespoke structures, EAMs and family offices can obtain competing quotes simultaneously, enabling efficient execution without over-reliance on a single counterparty.

The platform’s in-house structured derivatives team launches at least two ready-made products each week, complemented by a customisation tool that lets EAMs tailor key parameters such as barrier levels, underlying assets, tenors, and participation rates to client needs. This allows intermediaries to tailor solutions closely to client objectives, with turnaround that is competitive with traditional structuring processes.

For EAMs managing clients with specific market views, entry strategies, or hedging needs, the combination of customisation, competitive execution, and real-time lifecycle visibility makes this a toolkit worth understanding in greater depth.

A more cost-efficient way to access and custody alternative investments

For EAMs and family offices, the total cost of accessing alternative investments goes beyond the fund's own fee structure. Platform fees, custody charges, and intermediary margins all add up, and for clients who are fee-sensitive, those layers matter.

ADDX operates with a fee structure that is designed to be straightforward and competitive. Because the platform is built on digital infrastructure rather than legacy systems, the cost of delivering access and custody is structurally lower.

ADDX also acts as custodian for assets held on the platform, which means there is no need to arrange separate custody for alternative asset allocations. For EAMs managing client assets across multiple instruments, consolidating custody onto a single platform simplifies both reporting and compliance and removes a layer of cost that would otherwise sit between the client and their investment.

The result is a more efficient structure, where less value is lost to intermediary layers over time.

Built for how professional investors actually work

ADDX started as a way to open up alternative investments to accredited investors. What has become clear over time is that the same structural advantages of broader access, lower friction, and competitive economics, are just as relevant for the professional intermediaries managing money on their behalf.

Today, ADDX sits within a broader platform (ICH Group) that spans multiple parts of the investment value chain. This includes ICH Asset Management (ICHAM), which focuses on wealth management services, as well as GoAI and iCapital Holdings. GoAI functions as an investment analyst, using a multi-agent, multi-model AI framework to generate personalised investment ideas and real-time market insights.  iCapital Holdings is the corporate finance arm of ICH Group which advises on capital raising and IPOs, creating a pipeline of private and pre-IPO opportunities for EAMs and family offices to access as capital providers.

For EAMs and family offices, this is less about access in isolation, and more about operating leverage. Instead of navigating multiple counterparties and disconnected processes, they can work within a setup where ideas move more efficiently from structuring to execution, and into client portfolios. The result is not just convenience, but the ability to respond faster, tailor more precisely, and manage portfolios with greater control.

If you want to understand how ADDX works with EAMs and family offices, reach out to us below.

Disclaimer: This page is for general informational purposes only and has not been independently verified to ensure its accuracy and fairness. This page does not constitute any advice or recommendation from ADDX or any of its affiliates. Please consult your own professional advisors about the suitability of any investment product/securities/ instruments for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. No representation, warranty or other assurances of any kind, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness, adequacy, reliability validity or availability of any information in this article. Under no circumstance shall ADDX have any liability to the reader for any loss or damage of any kind incurred as a result of the use or reliance on any information provided in this page. This page may not be modified, reproduced, copied, distributed, in whole or in part and no commercial use or benefit may be derived from this article without the prior written permission of ADDX. ADDX reserve all rights to this page.

For decades, conventional wealth advice has followed a simple formula: own more equities when you are young, gradually shift to bonds as you age.¹

It is neat. It is intuitive. It is also incomplete.

In Singapore today, an accredited investor’s financial journey rarely follows a textbook glide path. You may be planning a property upgrade, funding overseas education, supporting ageing parents, protecting purchasing power against persistent inflation or managing liquidity across multiple commitments.

A portfolio built solely on public stocks and bonds often lacks the flexibility to address these overlapping demands.

Private markets were not designed to replace public markets. They were designed to solve different problems.  More importantly, a private markets allocation should not remain static. It should evolve with the realities of each decade.

💰Building a wealth engine from 25 to 40 through the illiquidity premium

Investors in their 20s and 30s possess one structural advantage that cannot be manufactured later: time.

With decades of earning capacity ahead, this cohort is positioned to benefit from assets that require patience. Yet in practice, many maintain substantial balances in low yielding liquid accounts while waiting for future milestones.
Holding liquidity for near term needs is prudent. Holding excessive liquidity for prolonged periods may create opportunity cost.²

Private equity and venture capital allow investors to participate in the growth of companies long before they access public exchanges. Historically, a significant share of enterprise value creation has occurred prior to IPO.³ These investments typically require multi-year commitments. That illiquidity is not a flaw but a feature.

Academic research has documented the existence of an illiquidity premium, where investors may be compensated for committing capital over longer horizons.⁴ For investors with long runways, allocating a portion of capital to long duration growth strategies can support the compounding of wealth during peak earning years.

⚖️ Balancing income stability and portfolio defense from 40 to 55

Between the ages of 40 and 55, the financial profile of an investor in Singapore often shifts toward a peak in responsibility. This phase is characterised by the dual pressure of managing career obligations while funding the higher education of children and the healthcare needs of elderly parents. Because these costs are often significant and non-negotiable, the priority naturally moves away from aggressive growth toward protecting the existing wealth base.

Public equities remain important for long-term growth. However, portfolio volatility during this phase can introduce sequence of returns risk, particularly when withdrawals are required during market downturns.⁵

Private credit and real assets may serve a structural role here.

Private credit strategies typically lend directly to companies and often sit higher in the capital structure than equity. This positioning may provide downside protection relative to common shares, though risk remains. ⁶

Real estate and infrastructure assets may generate periodic distributions, which can support cash flow needs without requiring the sale of core growth holdings.

Yield-focused structured products, such as fixed coupon notes, may also play a role in this context by providing regular coupons, with outcomes linked to the performance of the underlying assets.

Importantly, alternatives can reduce portfolio correlation to public markets, improving diversification when thoughtfully implemented.⁷

The objective in this decade is not aggressive expansion. It is balance. Growth continues, but capital preservation and income stability begin to matter more.

⏳️ Transitioning to sustainable distribution from 55 and above

For investors aged 55 and above, the focus shifts to creating a steady and sustainable income stream.  
Singapore’s CPF LIFE scheme provides a foundational income layer.⁸ For many accredited investors, however, it does not fully replace pre-retirement lifestyle expectations.

Relying solely on dividend paying bank stocks or REITs may create concentration risk, particularly within a single economy and interest rate environment.

Private market income strategies, including global infrastructure and commercial real estate, may offer diversified yield sources. Many infrastructure assets operate under long term contractual or regulated revenue models, which can provide cash flow visibility, although returns are not guaranteed.⁹

Some private market strategies incorporate inflation-linked mechanisms, helping preserve purchasing power over time.¹⁰

Some investors may also consider instruments such as commercial paper which can offer an additional source of income and diversification within a broader portfolio.

The goal at this stage is not maximising returns. It maintains financial resilience while preserving capital for legacy and intergenerational planning.

🔍 Evaluating your portfolio for the next decade

Understanding where your current allocation sits within your life cycle is a vital part of long-term wealth management. You can explore a range of private market and alternative investment opportunities, including open ended funds, structured products and short-term debt by visiting the ADDX platform.

References:

¹ Manulife Singapore – How to Start Investing
² Vanguard – The Case for Staying Invested
³ McKinsey & Company – Global Private Markets Review 2024
⁴ Ang, Papanikolaou & Westerfield – Portfolio Choice with Illiquid Assets (Journal of Finance)
⁵ CFA Institute – Sequence of Returns Risk
⁶ Preqin – Global Private Debt Report
⁷ BlackRock Investment Institute – Private Markets and Portfolio Construction
⁸ CPF Board Singapore – CPF LIFE Overview
⁹ OECD – Infrastructure as an Asset Class
¹⁰ Brookfield – Infrastructure and Inflation Hedging

Disclaimer: This page is for general informational purposes only and has not been independently verified to ensure its accuracy and fairness. This page does not constitute any advice or recommendation from ADDX or any of its affiliates. Please consult your own professional advisors about the suitability of any investment product/securities/ instruments for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. No representation, warranty or other assurances of any kind, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness, adequacy, reliability validity or availability of any information in this article. Under no circumstance shall ADDX have any liability to the reader for any loss or damage of any kind incurred as a result of the use or reliance on any information provided in this page. This page may not be modified, reproduced, copied, distributed, in whole or in part and no commercial use or benefit may be derived from this article without the prior written permission of ADDX. ADDX reserve all rights to this page.

Geopolitical volatility, tariff disruptions, and diverging monetary policies are reshaping global markets in 2026. For Singapore’s high-net-worth investors, the focus is shifting beyond growth alone towards building portfolios that can adapt across different market conditions.

The global landscape: A new era of geopolitical risk

The current environment reflects more than a typical cyclical slowdown. Leading institutions increasingly describe it as a structurally different geopolitical backdrop. Developments such as tensions in the Middle East, disruptions along key energy routes, the evolving US–China relationship, and rising trade fragmentation are becoming more persistent features of markets.

The BlackRock Investment Institute describes this moment as a “wholesale reordering of global political and economic relationships”, driven by rising trade protectionism, increased government interventions in markets, heightened global competition, and an intensifying AI race. ¹ Meanwhile, the WEF Global Risks Report 2026 identifies geoeconomic confrontation as the foremost immediate risk to the global economy selected by 18% of over 1,300 surveyed experts as the risk most likely to trigger a material global crisis this year, climbing from 8th place in 2025. ²

These dynamics affect markets through multiple channels. Energy supply disruptions can contribute to inflationary pressures, while trade fragmentation may redirect capital flows and increase cost pressures for businesses. Policy uncertainty continues to weigh on investment decisions globally.

Singapore's unique position in a fragmented world

Singapore sits at the intersection of global capital flows. While its open economy makes it sensitive to global developments, it also benefits strong institutions, regulatory credibility, and its role as a regional financial hub.

The asset management industry reached approximately SGD 6.7 trillion in AUM in 2024, with a large share of capital both sourced and invested globally. ³ The continued growth of family offices further reinforces Singapore’s position as a key wealth management centre in Asia.

How resilient portfolios are being constructed in 2026

In a period defined by structural uncertainty rather than cyclical volatility, investors are rethinking portfolio construction. The strategies below represent the pillars of resilience being deployed by HNW allocators in 2026.

1) Strategic geographic diversification
With the US-China relationship remaining adversarial, concentration in any single geography carries elevated risk. Singapore's HNW investors are increasingly diversifying portfolios spanning developed and selected emerging markets, deliberately avoiding overexposure to any single political or trade bloc. The Bank of Singapore's 2026 Supertrends Report highlights Asia's evolution into a technology and sustainability powerhouse a structural shift that warrants meaningful long-term allocation. ⁵

2) Gold and commodities as geopolitical hedges
J.P. Morgan Global Research projects gold prices pushing toward $5,000/oz by Q4 2026, supported by central bank and investor demand averaging 585 tonnes a quarter. Even at elevated prices, central bank structural buying has further to run around 755 tonnes of purchases expected in 2026 alone. In Singapore, gold is widely viewed as one of several assets that investors monitor for its historical role during periods of macro or market stress. Its performance characteristics, particularly during episodes of currency volatility or heightened geopolitical tension, make it a potential tool for diversification. ⁶

3) Private credit: Income opportunities with contractual cash flows and structural features
As traditional banks become increasingly selective in their lending, private credit has emerged as a vital financing channel in global capital markets. For investors, it offers yield-focused returns that are largely insulated from public market volatility.

This low correlation to public markets is borne out by the data: for the period from October 1 2021 to ending September 30, 2022, private credit posted a correlation of just 0.70 against the S&P 500 Index and a near-neutral -0.15 against the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index. ⁷

The Asia-Pacific private credit market is poised for significant growth, projected to nearly double from $59 billion in 2024 to $92 billion by 2027, representing a 16% compound annual growth rate (Hubbis). This trajectory is driven by rising investor demand for diversification, greater appetite for flexible financing solutions, and ongoing structural shifts in regional economic activity. ⁸

4) Selective AI and technology exposure
AI has been a dominant driver of earnings growth for the S&P 500 in recent years, with technology names responsible for a disproportionate share of incremental market returns. For investors, the opportunity lies in examining different parts of the AI supply chain while maintaining discipline on entry valuations and avoiding concentration risks.

5) Multi-currency and FX strategy
In a world of diverging monetary policies with the Federal Reserve cutting rates while the Bank of Japan tightens and the ECB maintains a cautious stance - currency management has become a material source of both risk and return. Singapore-based investors potentially benefit from holding assets denominated across SGD, USD, JPY, and EUR, with the SGD potentially providing a natural stabilising buffer. MAS's exchange-rate-centered monetary policy means the SGD remains one of Asia's most credible and stable currencies, a meaningful advantage for multi-currency portfolio construction.

6) Structured products: Harnessing volatility for defined outcomes
Periods of elevated market volatility can create favorable conditions for certain structured products, as option premiums tend to increase. For HNW investors, these instruments may offer a way to access market exposure with predefined payoff to risk profiles, depending on the structure.

In uncertain market environments, some investors explore structured products as part of broader portfolios of construction, particularly for investors seeking more defined risk-return parameters.

7) Short-term debt and commercial paper: Liquidity as a strategic asset
Volatility highlights the risks of liquidity. Short-term debt instruments, particularly high-grade commercial paper and short-duration money market instruments, serve a dual purpose: preserving capital during dislocations while keeping dry powder ready for attractive entry points. With short-term rates still elevated in 2026, investors are compensated for staying liquid.

The macro-outlook: Navigating the road ahead

According to Allianz Global Investors, global growth is expected to remain stable, supported by policy measures, resilient private-sector balance sheets, and AI-driven productivity, even as geopolitical risks persist. ⁹

For fixed income, the path of interest rates remains uncertain, shaped by inflation and geopolitical developments. Yields may therefore stay elevated, with investor positioning continuing to adjust alongside policy expectations.

Real estate, particularly in Singapore’s Core Central Region and well-located commercial assets, continues to attract interest as an income-generating and diversification component. Singapore’s absence of capital gains tax also supports its role in long-term wealth planning.

Conclusion: Resilience as the ultimate return

In today’s environment, diversification plays a central role in building resilient portfolios. Rather than relying on any single driver of returns, investors are combining multiple strategies across asset classes, geographies, and currencies.

For Singapore’s HNW investors, this approach reflects a broader shift: focusing not only on returns, but on building portfolios that can adapt across different market conditions.

References:
¹ BlackRock Investment Institute (March 2026). "Geopolitical Risk Dashboard". https://www.blackrock.com/institutions/en-apac/insights/thought-leadership/blackrock-investment-institute/interactive-charts/geopolitical-risk-dashboard  

² World Economic Forum (January 2026). "Global Risks Report 2026". https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2026/digest/

³ Resource Group Holdings (February 2026). "Singapore Asset Management Market Trends 2026". https://www.resourcegroupholdings.com/singapore-asset-management-market-trends/

⁴ Capgemini. World Wealth Report 2024. https://worldwealthreport.com

⁵ Bank of Singapore Chief Investment Office (2026). "2026 Supertrends: Bridging Worlds; Building Whole Portfolios". https://www.bankofsingapore.com/research/2026-supertrends-bridging-worlds-building-whole-portfolios.html

⁶ J.P. Morgan Global Research (2025/2026). "Gold Price Forecasts: A New High?". https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/gold-prices

⁷ Calamos, today for tomorrow (2023) "Pursuing an Expanded Efficient Frontier with Private Credit". https://www.calamos.com/blogs/investment-ideas/pursuing-an-expanded-efficient-frontier-with-private-credit/#:~:text=Consulting a financial advisor about your particular, measures the performance of investment grade bonds

⁸ Creative Planning (2026) "Private credit trends 2026: Growth outlook and opportunities" Private Credit Trends 2026: Growth Outlook and Opportunities

⁹ Allianz Global Investors (January 2026). "House View Q1 2026". https://www.allianzgi.com/en/insights/outlook-and-commentary/house-view-q1-2026  

Disclaimer: This page is for general informational purposes only and has not been independently verified to ensure its accuracy and fairness. This page does not constitute any advice or recommendation from ADDX or any of its affiliates. Please consult your own professional advisors about the suitability of any investment product/securities/ instruments for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. No representation, warranty or other assurances of any kind, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness, adequacy, reliability validity or availability of any information in this article. Under no circumstance shall ADDX have any liability to the reader for any loss or damage of any kind incurred as a result of the use or reliance on any information provided in this page. This page may not be modified, reproduced, copied, distributed, in whole or in part and no commercial use or benefit may be derived from this article without the prior written permission of ADDX. ADDX reserve all rights to this page.

This article was produced by GoAI. The original article can be found here.

The global financial system in early 2026 is navigating a complex web of geopolitical tensions, technological transitions, and credit cycle maturation. This report analyses whether markets are currently underestimating three specific potential black swan events: a sustained US-Iran military conflict driving oil prices and inflation higher, a shortfall in AI infrastructure development relative to expectations, and a liquidity crisis in the private lending market.

By examining real-time market data, expert consensus, and historical precedents, we assess the probability of these events and the extent to which current asset prices reflect their potential impact.

1. US-Iran Military Conflict and Energy Market Shocks

As of March 2026, the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East has deteriorated significantly. A US-Iran military conflict is actively underway, characterized by joint US-Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian ballistic missile infrastructure and leadership under "Operation Epic Fury." In retaliation, Iran and its proxies have launched strikes on US bases and regional energy infrastructure, including Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura facilities.

Despite the severity of the conflict, energy markets appear to be pricing in a contained disruption rather than a sustained, systemic shock. As of early March 2026, Brent crude oil is trading around $82.31 per barrel, and WTI is near $76.29 per barrel. While these levels represent substantial year-to-date gains of approximately 35.6% for Brent and 32.9% for WTI, they remain well below the triple-digit prices typically associated with severe Middle East supply disruptions.

The futures curve and analyst projections reflect a belief that the conflict will not lead to a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. For instance, Goldman Sachs recently raised its Q2 2026 Brent target to $76 per barrel, citing OECD inventory draws and Middle East production contraction, but actually cut its Q4 target to $66 per barrel, anticipating normalization.

Conclusion: Markets are likely underestimating the tail risk of sustained high oil prices and subsequent inflation.

The current pricing suggests that markets view the US-Israeli air dominance and the reported 90% reduction in Iranian missile attacks as indicators that the conflict is nearing a resolution. However, this perspective may underestimate the asymmetric retaliatory capabilities of Iran and its proxies, particularly regarding energy infrastructure.

If the conflict escalates to involve broader regional actors or results in sustained damage to Gulf oil facilities, the resulting supply shock could quickly push oil prices well above $100 per barrel. Such a scenario would have immediate cascading effects on global inflation expectations, which currently appear sanguine. For example, India's Finance Minister recently stated that the recent rise in oil prices is expected to have minimal domestic inflation impact. This complacency leaves central banks and bond markets vulnerable to a sudden resurgence in headline inflation, potentially forcing a reversal of any anticipated monetary easing.

2. AI Infrastructure Development Shortfall

The narrative driving much of the equity market's gains over the past three years has been the transformative potential of Artificial Intelligence. However, the physical reality of deploying AI at scale is encountering significant friction. As of March 2026, 54% of organizations report that their AI projects have been delayed over the past two years, primarily due to power shortages, cooling constraints, and skills gaps.

Major technology companies continue to commit staggering sums to AI capital expenditures, with Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon planning over $200 billion in combined capex for 2026. Equity markets continue to reward these investments, with companies like Nvidia maintaining a market capitalization of approximately $4.5 trillion and Amazon trading at 34 times earnings.

However, there are emerging signs of execution risk being priced into specific segments. The implied volatility of AI leaders like Nvidia remains elevated (NVDA VIX around 45-50), and credit spreads for data center REITs and utilities have widened by 100-200 basis points since late 2025. Furthermore, recent earnings reports have shown vulnerability; for instance, Palo Alto Networks recently trimmed its annual profit forecast due to rising costs from AI-focused acquisitions, resulting in a 7.2% stock drop.

Conclusion: Equity markets are partially underestimating the execution risk and timeline of AI infrastructure deployment.

While the long-term demand for AI compute appears robust, the physical constraints of the power grid and data center construction are creating a bottleneck that equity valuations may not fully reflect. The phenomenon of "ghost capacity"—where utilities impose multi-year queues and high upfront payments for power connections—is severely limiting expansion.

Current valuations of the "Magnificent 7" embed an assumption of near-perfect execution on these massive capex plans. If power constraints or cooling issues lead to widespread delays in bringing new data centers online, the anticipated revenue growth from AI services will be pushed further into the future. This duration mismatch between capital outlay and revenue generation could lead to a significant derating of AI-related equities, particularly if investors begin to question the ultimate return on invested capital (ROIC) of these infrastructure builds.

3. Private Credit Liquidity Crisis

The private credit market has experienced explosive growth, expanding from approximately $2 trillion in 2020 to over $3 trillion by the end of 2025. This growth has been fueled by investors seeking yield and borrowers seeking flexible capital outside the traditional syndicated loan market. However, as the credit cycle matures in 2026, vulnerabilities are becoming apparent.

Headline metrics suggest a relatively benign environment. As of early March 2026, US high-yield credit spreads stand at a tight 3.19% (ICE BofA US High Yield Master II OAS), well below the long-term average of 5.20%. The headline default rate for leveraged loans remains low at 2.06% on a par basis.

However, beneath the surface, stress is building. The "true" default rate in private credit approaches 5% when selective defaults and liability management exercises (LMEs) are included. The IMF's 2025 Financial Stability Report highlighted that approximately 40% of private credit borrowers have negative free cash flow, up from 25% in 2021. Furthermore, the use of payment-in-kind (PIK) toggles has broadened significantly, indicating that borrowers are struggling with cash interest burdens.

Conclusion: Credit markets are significantly underestimating the risk of a liquidity mismatch and systemic stress in private lending.

The primary risk in private credit is not just credit losses, but liquidity. The market is facing a massive refinancing wall of $300-350 billion in 2026 for loans originated during the 2020-2021 boom. This comes at a time when redemption pressures are beginning to surface in semi-liquid vehicles, which now account for nearly a third of the US direct lending market. For example, Blue Owl recently restricted redemptions in a semi-liquid credit fund due to an investor rush.

The lack of transparent mark-to-market pricing in private credit obscures the true extent of unrealized losses and delays the recognition of stress. If the refinancing wave encounters a market where lenders are forced to tighten standards or where retail investors accelerate redemptions from semi-liquid funds, it could trigger a negative feedback loop. The tight high-yield spreads currently observed suggest that public markets are not pricing in the potential contagion effects of a private credit liquidity squeeze, making this a classic, underpriced black swan risk.

Have a financial topic you’d like to research? Explore it with GoAI here.

For decades, most portfolios were built primarily around publicly traded assets.

Equities provide growth while bonds offered a more stable source of income and generally higher liquidity than other asset classes

The framework was simple and efficient, supported by daily pricing and easy access.

However, relying solely on public markets means portfolio outcomes are closely tied to daily market sentiment, liquidity flows, and short-term volatility. As private capital markets expand, investors are increasingly assessing the role alternative strategies may play within a diversified portfolio.  

As private capital markets have expanded, investors are increasingly considering how alternative strategies fit within existing allocations. Instead of viewing alternatives as a separate bucket, they can be evaluated based on the economic role they play within income, growth, and real asset exposures.

This perspective reframes the discussion. Alternatives are not an isolated add-on. They are functional complements to existing allocations.

Mapping public allocations to private markets

The Income Component - Public Bonds versus Private Credit
Public fixed income, including government and investment grade corporate bonds, typically serves as the liquidity anchor of a portfolio. These instruments offer transparency, capital preservation characteristics, and daily tradability.

The trade-off is that liquidity often comes with lower yields. Fixed rate bonds may also be exposed to duration risk, where prices decline as interest rates rise.

Private credit plays a complementary role. By lending directly to companies, private credit strategies may generate higher yields than public bonds. However, these higher yields are typically associated with increased credit risk, lower liquidity, and structural complexity relative to traditional fixed income.

In addition, many private credit structures use floating rate mechanisms, allowing income potential to adjust alongside benchmark rates.

Importantly, private credit is not designed to replace public bonds. Public fixed income continues to provide liquidity and stability for near term needs. Private credit may enhance portfolio yield over the medium term, provided the capital can remain committed over the investment horizon.

The Growth Component - Public Equity versus Private Equity
Public equities have traditionally been the primary engine of capital appreciation. They provide immediate liquidity and broad exposure to economic growth.

However, public market pricing can be influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, liquidity flows, and quarterly earnings expectations. This can result in short term volatility that does not always reflect underlying fundamentals.

Private equity occupies a similar growth allocation but operates through a different mechanism. Instead of relying primarily on market multiple expansion, private equity value creation is often driven by operational improvements such as margin expansion, strategic restructuring, or buy and build strategies over multiyear periods¹.

Because private assets are not marked to market daily, portfolio volatility may appear smoother. However, this does not eliminate risk. Investors must accept limited liquidity and the inability to exit positions quickly during periods
of stress.

Used together, public and private equities can serve complementary roles. Public markets provide liquidity and real-time price discovery. Private markets provide exposure to long term operational value creation.

The Real Asset Component - REITs versus Private Real Estate
For property exposure, publicly traded real estate investment trusts offer efficient and liquid access. They allow investors to adjust allocations quickly and benefit from pricing transparency.

However, because REITs are exchange traded, they often exhibit meaningful correlation with broader equity markets, particularly during periods of market dislocation². In such environments, price movements may reflect market sentiment rather than underlying property fundamentals.

Private real estate funds take a different approach. These vehicles typically hold physical assets directly, with valuations based on periodic appraisals and net operating income rather than daily market trading.
This valuation methodology can reduce sensitivity to short term market volatility and provide a return profile more closely tied to property income and long-term asset value.

The trade-off is liquidity. Private real estate funds generally allow redemptions only at specific intervals and may be subject to gating mechanisms under certain market conditions. As such, they are typically suited for capital allocated with a long-term horizon.

An integrated portfolio framework

Determining where alternatives sit within a portfolio begins with understanding existing public allocations.

Where public fixed income provides liquidity, private credit may enhance yield. Where public equity provides growth, private equity may deepen exposure to operational value creation. Where listed real estate offers tradable property exposure, private real estate may provide income stability over longer horizons.

The objective is not to replace public markets. Public assets remain essential for liquidity, transparency, and flexibility. Instead, the goal is to be integrated. Constructing a portfolio where public and private assets are aligned by economic function rather than separated by label allows each allocation to play its intended role within the broader structure.

In practice, portfolio construction is less about choosing between public and private markets, and more about understanding how each contributes to income, growth, and diversification across different market environments.

References:
¹Private Credit Outlook: Estimated $5 Trillion Market by 2029 | Morgan Stanley
²Research & Insights | MSCI

Disclaimer: This page is for general informational purposes only and has not been independently verified to ensure its accuracy and fairness. This page does not constitute any advice or recommendation from ADDX or any of its affiliates. Please consult your own professional advisors about the suitability of any investment product/securities/ instruments for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. No representation, warranty or other assurances of any kind, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness, adequacy, reliability validity or availability of any information in this article. Under no circumstance shall ADDX have any liability to the reader for any loss or damage of any kind incurred as a result of the use or reliance on any information provided in this page. This page may not be modified, reproduced, copied, distributed, in whole or in part and no commercial use or benefit may be derived from this article without the prior written permission of ADDX. ADDX reserve all rights to this page.

If you look at how Singapore’s largest institutional investors, like GIC or Temasek, manage their portfolio, you will notice a common strategy. They don’t just rely on the stock market.  

For decades, large institutional investors and ultra wealthy family offices have allocated capital across a broader range of asset classes beyond publicly listed stocks and bonds, including private market investments^1,2.While many retail investors typically focus on the daily ups and downs of stocks and bonds, the world’s largest funds have been following a different playbook built on assets not found on a public exchange.  

As with any investment, it may not be suitable for everyone. Here’s why some investors are growing their wealth with private markets and moving towards alternatives, while others remain hesitant.

Divergent views on private markets

The divide between those who embrace private investing and those who stay away usually comes down to three main factors: personal risk preferences, the mechanics of the investment, and accessibility.

Personal risk and reward preferences

Investment preference is deeply personal. It often comes down to one question: Do you value stability, or do you value growth?

Some people prioritise the total protection of their principal above all else. They prefer stable options like bank fixed deposits or government bonds. Even if the interest rates struggle to keep pace with inflation (1.2%)³, many investors find peace of mind knowing their capital is secure. For them, potential volatility may feel uncomfortable.

Others believe that playing it too safe is a risk in itself, as inflation can erode their purchasing power over time. These investors are willing to accept a higher level of risk, including the potential loss of some principal, in exchange for the opportunity to earn higher yields and grow their wealth. They see private markets as a necessary tool to outpace inflation and achieve long-term financial goals.

Public vs. private markets: Liquidity and accessibility

Liquidity is one of the key differences between public and private markets.

In public markets, assets such as listed equities and ETFs are typically traded on exchanges, allowing investors to buy or sell based on prevailing market prices during trading hours. This structure offers greater flexibility and price transparency, making it easier for investors to adjust their portfolios as market conditions change.

Private market investments, by contrast, are generally less liquid. These investments are often structured with defined investment horizons, during which capital is committed for a period of time. While some private market instruments may offer shorter durations or periodic subscription and redemption features (i.e. semi-liquid funds), investors should expect less flexibility compared to publicly traded assets.

Another distinction lies in how investments are accessed and managed.

In public markets, most investors can access a wide range of instruments such as listed equities, bonds, and exchange traded funds through brokerage accounts, with relatively low minimum investment sizes. These instruments are generally available to the broader investing public and can be bought or sold on an exchange.

Private market investments, by contrast, are typically offered through private placements or structured offerings and are usually available only to eligible investors, such as accredited or institutional investors. Access is determined by regulatory requirements and investment structure, rather than by investor expertise, with investments often carrying higher minimums.

The historical barrier: A matter of access

Historically, many investors didn’t invest in private markets not because of the assets themselves, but because of the high barrier to entry. For decades, the private market tended to be an invite-only club. As the minimum investment sizes were so large (i.e. $1,000,000), it was simply not relevant to the average person’s financial plan.

Unless an investor was able to commit seven-figure sum to a single deal, they were effectively locked out of this asset class. This created a perception that private investing was only for the elite, leading many individual accredited investors to focus on the more accessible public stock exchange.

How has private markets evolved?

The good news: The old rules of massive minimums and decade-long lockups are no longer the only way to play.

Here are the developments:

A lower entry level

• You no longer need a million dollars to access the institutional-grade products.
• On platforms like ADDX, through a process called fractionalisation, institutional-grade assets that used to require high minimums are now accessible starting from SGD $1,000.
• This allows you to diversify your portfolio at a much lower entry point.

The liquidity myth

A common misconception is that all private investments require a multi-year commitment. This fear often causes investors to avoid the asset classes within private markets entirely.

However, the modern private market offers a much broader spectrum of tenures to fit different liquidity needs. Some instruments, such as commercial paper, may have shorter tenures of around 3 to 12 months. Other private market structures, including certain open-ended funds, may allow subscriptions and redemptions on a periodic basis, such as monthly or quarterly, subject to the fund’s terms and conditions.

That said, secondary liquidity in private markets is typically limited and not guaranteed. Redemptions, where permitted, are subject to the fund’s terms and conditions, fund manager discretion, applicable gating or suspension measures, and prevailing market conditions.

Understanding suitability

Ultimately, the difference between public and private markets is not about one being better than the other, but about how each investment structure aligns with an investor’s preferences, constraints, and objectives. Public markets offer liquidity, transparency, and ease of access, making them suitable for investors who value flexibility and frequent price visibility. Private markets, on the other hand, operate with different mechanics, including longer investment horizons and reduced liquidity, which may suit investors who are comfortable committing capital for defined periods.

As private markets have evolved, barriers such as high minimum investments and limited access have gradually lowered, allowing more accredited investors to consider these assets alongside traditional investments. Even so, private market investments remain one category within a broader investment universe, and they may not be appropriate for everyone.

Understanding the structural differences between public and private markets, as well as one’s own financial situation, understanding of risk, and investment time horizon, is an important starting point when evaluating any investment approach.

References:
¹Global Investor Ranking | Top Private Equity Investors | Private Equity International
²GIC Report on the Management of the Government's Portfolio for the Year 2024/25
³Singapore Inflation Rate

Disclaimer: This page is for general informational purposes only and has not been independently verified to ensure its accuracy and fairness. This page does not constitute any advice or recommendation from ADDX or any of its affiliates. Please consult your own professional advisors about the suitability of any investment product/securities/ instruments for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. No representation, warranty or other assurances of any kind, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness, adequacy, reliability validity or availability of any information in this article. Under no circumstance shall ADDX have any liability to the reader for any loss or damage of any kind incurred as a result of the use or reliance on any information provided in this page. This page may not be modified, reproduced, copied, distributed, in whole or in part and no commercial use or benefit may be derived from this article without the prior written permission of ADDX. ADDX reserve all rights to this page.

For many investors, the first step into investing is driven by excitement. New opportunities, new products, and the promise of growing capital can be compelling. But even well-informed, accredited investors can make avoidable missteps early on.

Here are some of the most common mistakes first-time investors make, and how a more thoughtful approach can set a stronger foundation for long-term outcomes.

SUMMARY

A final thought

At ADDX, we believe informed investors make more confident choices, and that long-term success starts with understanding, not shortcuts.

Everyone makes mistakes early on. That is part of becoming an investor. The goal is not to avoid every misstep, but to learn quickly, stay disciplined, and build a framework that supports better decisions over time.

Disclaimers: This article is for general informational purposes only and has not been independently verified to ensure its accuracy and fairness. This article does not constitute any advice or recommendation from ADDX Pte. Ltd. (“ADDX”) or any of its affiliates. Please consult your own professional advisors about the suitability of any investment product/securities/ instruments for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. No representation, warranty or other assurances of any kind, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness, adequacy, reliability validity or availability of any information in this article. Under no circumstance shall ADDX have any liability to the reader for any loss or damage of any kind incurred as a result of the use or reliance on any information provided in this article. This article may not be modified, reproduced, copied, distributed, in whole or in part and no commercial use or benefit may be derived from this article without the prior written permission of ADDX. ADDX reserves all rights to this article. 

As 2026 begins, many investors in Singapore are actively comparing the best interest rates available on traditional cash instruments such as fixed deposits and government-backed options with alternative ways to manage idle capital. The elevated yields seen in recent years have gradually normalised, reflecting a shift in the interest rate environment and prompting a closer look at how different cash options now stack up side by side.

In practice, idle cash still tends to follow a familiar and disciplined path. It is commonly allocated to instruments that prioritise capital preservation and liquidity, such as Singapore T-bills, bank fixed deposits, and savings accounts. These tools remain popular for good reason: they are simple, widely understood, and designed to minimise volatility, making them a natural first choice for short-term cash management.

For investors with T-bills or fixed deposits reaching maturity, however, the comparison becomes more deliberate. Reinvestment rates today are typically closer to around 1.5 percent per annum, offering stability and predictability, but at a level that can feel modest relative to previous years. This has led many to evaluate how professional cash alternatives compare alongside traditional bank and government-backed instruments.

A short-term option most investors overlook

The challenge of managing short-term cash is not unique to individual investors. Large institutions such as insurers, asset managers, and corporates face similar considerations - they need to deploy cash efficiently over short periods without committing long tenures or leaving funds unutilised.

One solution they commonly use is commercial paper (CP).

Commercial paper is a short-term debt instrument issued by companies to fund working capital and operational needs. It typically offers a fixed return over a defined period, with principal repaid at maturity, subject to the credit profile of the issuing company. In short, commercial paper typically means:

• Short tenures, often between 3 - 12 months
• Fixed income payouts determined upfront
• Principal repayment at maturity, subject to issuer credit risk

Historically, the commercial paper market was only accessible to institutional investors with minimum entry requirements of US$100,000 or more. ADDX uses technology to make these institutional-grade assets accessible at S$20,000, allowing individual investors to capture yields that were previously out of reach.

How do commercial paper compares with other short-term options?

Here’s a side-by-side comparison:

Data as of 27 January, 2026

Risks associated with commercial paper

When considering commercial paper alongside other short-term instruments such as Singapore T-Bills, it is important to understand how the underlying risks differ.

Singapore T-Bills are issued by the Singapore Government and are backed by its credit standing. Returns are determined through auction, and principal is repaid at maturity.

Commercial paper, by contrast, is issued by corporates. As a result, returns and repayment are dependent on the credit profile and financial position of the issuing company. While commercial paper typically offers fixed terms over short durations, it carries issuer-specific credit risk, which differs in nature from government-issued instruments.

Understanding these distinctions helps investors assess how different short-term instruments function, and the trade-offs involved between issuer type, credit exposure, and return structure.

How ADDX approaches commercial paper?

On ADDX, our commercial paper issuers go through three factors of review before any offering is made available to investors:

• Issuer quality: Priority is given to issuers that are SGX-listed, established blue-chip companies, or reputable mid-cap firms with demonstrable operating history and stable business fundamentals.
• Credit assessment: Each issuer undergoes a detailed review by the investment team, including analysis of audited financial statements, cash flow visibility, balance sheet strength, and historical debt servicing behaviour.
• As a platform operating under a regulatory framework in Singapore, ADDX applies defined listing criteria and internal governance requirements to issuers before they are made available on the platform. These standards are designed to assess issuer eligibility, disclosure quality, and risk considerations, and to ensure that offerings are structured in accordance with applicable regulatory obligations and ADDX’s platform requirements.

Explore current short-term opportunities today

Don't let your cash lose its purchasing power to inflation. As traditional rates cool, short-term debt instruments like commercial paper offer a sophisticated alternative for the proactive investor.

Register on ADDX today to browse our latest commercial paper opportunities and start earning a higher yield on your idle cash.

References:

¹Singapore core inflation at 1.2% y/y in October, higher than expected | Reuters

²Products for Individuals

³Singapore Best Fixed Deposit Rates [January 2026] | StashAway Singapore

⁴Singapore Savings Bonds

⁵The Complete Guide to Money Market Funds in Singapore: A 2026 Guide | StashAway Singapore

Disclaimer: This page is for general informational purposes only and has not been independently verified to ensure its accuracy and fairness. This page does not constitute any advice or recommendation from ADDX or any of its affiliates. Please consult your own professional advisors about the suitability of any investment product/securities/ instruments for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. No representation, warranty or other assurances of any kind, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness, adequacy, reliability validity or availability of any information in this article. Under no circumstance shall ADDX have any liability to the reader for any loss or damage of any kind incurred as a result of the use or reliance on any information provided in this page. This page may not be modified, reproduced, copied, distributed, in whole or in part and no commercial use or benefit may be derived from this article without the prior written permission of ADDX. ADDX reserve all rights to this page.

Asia has been one of the most important engines of global growth in the past two decades, and its momentum remains strong. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Asia and the Pacific’s GDP are projected to grow at about 3.9% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026.¹ Although this marks a moderation from previous years, Asia is still expected to contribute roughly 60% of global growth in 2024.²

This sustained momentum offers two core advantages for investors: growth potential and diversification. Asia’s economies are still climbing the income curve, supported by expanding consumer bases, rapid digital adoption, and industrial upgrading. At the same time, the region’s growth cycles often exhibit lower correlation with those of the United States or Europe, which may offer diversification benefits in multi-asset portfolios by helping to mitigate overall volatility during periods of varying global economic performance.

Asia’s growth model is transitioning from export-led expansion toward more diverse, domestically influenced patterns amid growing global trade uncertainty.

As Asia's growth story moves into a more complex stage, global investors need to closely track its changing patterns to keep an edge. The old focus on simple, export-driven gains is fading, replaced by a broader picture: rising innovation centers, updated government priorities, and stronger sources of economic stability. Which countries will drive the region's changes through 2035? How will shifts in trade paths, technology sectors, and money flows alter investment options across Asia?

Asia’s key drivers and investment shifts through 2035

Asia's economic trajectory shows potential for notable changes over the next decade, with several countries positioned to contribute significantly to regional growth alongside adjustments in trade, technology, and capital movements.

Several Asian markets exhibit characteristics that could position them to play influential roles in the region's growth through 2035, including robust domestic demand, innovation capacity, and resilience to external pressures. Recent 2025 outlook suggests Asia could maintain robust growth, with the region projected to expand at around 4% in 2025, surpassing the global average of 2.7%.³ While long-term projections involve uncertainties, China, India, and Southeast Asian nations like Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines are expected to be influential players, potentially elevating the region's economic weight.³

China, despite facing headwinds like property sector adjustments, retains significant scale and innovation potential. It is expected to remain a major force, with recent forecasts from the World Bank projecting GDP growth at 4.8% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026, bolstered by stimulus measures and pivots to high-tech sectors such as AI and electric vehicles.⁴ This highlights opportunities for selective exposure to innovation-driven industries like semiconductors and renewables, where targeted allocations—via thematic funds or direct equities—can potentially capture upside potential, provided investors balance against ongoing regulatory scrutiny and geopolitical tensions to maintain diversified resilience.

Consider India, which Goldman Sachs projects could become the world’s fastest-growing major economy and potentially reach a $10 trillion GDP within the next decade. This outlook is supported by a young demographic profile, expanding domestic consumption, and sustained investment in infrastructure, factors that continue to attract long-term capital. Growth opportunities are particularly visible in consumer goods, renewable energy, and financial technology. J.P. Morgan’s Asia Mid-Year Outlook 2025 echoes this optimism, highlighting India’s relatively low export dependence, around 1.1% of GDP⁵, as a buffer against global trade volatility. This internal demand orientation may help sustain economic momentum through the next decade. For investors, thematic allocations targeting India’s rising middle class and consumption-led sectors may offer long-term growth exposure, while maintaining diversification and close attention to fiscal reforms remains essential to manage concentration risks.

In Southeast Asia, Vietnam stands out for its growing role in diversified global supply chains, attracting steady inflows of foreign direct investment in electronics and manufacturing. Production costs remain significantly lower than in developed markets, reinforcing their competitiveness as companies continue to relocate operations across the region. According to recent World Bank estimates, Vietnam’s near-term growth is expected to range between 6.6% and 6.8%, though external headwinds such as trade tensions and tariff adjustments could temper this momentum.⁶ For investors, these dynamics highlight the case for selective exposure to ASEAN-focused or supply chain–themed strategies, while maintaining vigilance toward policy and trade-related risks that may affect export-oriented sectors.

Advanced markets like Japan, Korea, and Taiwan offer complementary stability through technology leadership. Japan's wage growth and corporate governance improvements could foster a cycle of domestic demand and investment returns, while Korea and Taiwan's semiconductor ecosystems position them well for AI-related expansions.  

Beyond individual markets, the region’s economic architecture is also being reshaped through deeper integration. Initiatives such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and ongoing supply chain diversification are strengthening cross-border linkages and supporting the development of regional value networks. These shifts suggest that Asia’s next decade of growth will be increasingly interconnected, where technology transfer, capital mobility, and policy coordination play as much a role as traditional trade. For investors, a clear understanding of these structural linkages, including how trade frameworks, innovation ecosystems, and financial flows reinforce one another, will be essential to identify areas where long-term value creation is most likely to emerge across the region.

Key takeaways

Asia’s growth story is entering a more differentiated phase. Over the next decade, investors will need to look beyond headline numbers to identify where structural shifts, innovation, and domestic demand come together. Economies such as India and Vietnam are expected to benefit from demographic momentum and supply chain diversification, while China’s innovation sectors continue to play a strategic role despite cyclical challenges.

At the same time, regional integration, digital transformation, and evolving policy priorities are redefining how value is created and shared across Asia. In this environment, maintaining a multi-asset and regionally balanced approach, grounded in sound fundamentals and resilience, will be essential for navigating both opportunities and volatility.

By staying informed and focused on long-term drivers, investors can better position themselves to take part in Asia’s next chapter of sustainable growth.

References:
¹ https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/APAC/Issues/2025/04/24/regional-economic-outlook-for-asia-and-pacific-April-2025
² https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/APAC/Issues/2024/10/31/regional-economic-outlook-for-asia-and-pacific-october-2024
³ https://www.asiahouse.org/files/documents/Asia-House-Annual-Outlook-2025.pdf
⁴ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/world-bank-lifts-china-2025-gdp-forecast-48-ahead-slowdown-next-year-2025-10-07/
⁵ https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/apac/en/insights/markets-and-investing/asf/asia-mid-year-outlook
⁶ https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/vietnam/publication/taking-stock-viet-nam-economic-update-march-2025

This article is for general informational purposes only and has not been independently verified to ensure its accuracy and fairness. This article does not constitute any advice or recommendation from ADDX or ICHX Tech Pte. Ltd. (“ICHX”) or any of its affiliates. Please consult your own professional advisors about the suitability of any investment product/securities/ instruments for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. No representation, warranty or other assurances of any kind, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness, adequacy, reliability validity or availability of any information in this article. Under no circumstance shall ADDX or ICHX bear any liability to the reader for any loss or damage of any kind incurred as a result of the use or reliance on any information provided in this article. This article may not be modified, reproduced, copied, distributed, in whole or in part and no commercial use or benefit may be derived from this article without the prior written permission of ADDX and ICHX. ADDX and ICHX reserve all rights to this article.

Trade tensions escalate, markets waver amid renewed uncertainty

As trade tensions between the U.S. and China rise again, global markets are once more on edge. On October 10, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a new 100% tariff on all Chinese imports, effective November 1, in response to China’s recent restrictions on rare earth exports. The news triggered a sharp global sell-off: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 2%, the Nasdaq Composite slid more than 3%, and the S&P 500 lost over 2%, while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged more than 30% in a single day.¹

The broad market sell-off reflected investors’ growing worries about supply chain disruption and global growth. The U.S. dollar strengthened, commodity prices turned volatile, and safe-haven assets like Treasuries and gold saw increased buying activity. Major Asian and European stock indexes also fell sharply, while the renminbi and other emerging-market currencies weakened. Within days, risk appetite faded and investors seemed to have shifted away from riskier investments.

But scenes like this are nothing new. From the global financial crisis to the pandemic shock, every major global event has caused market turmoil and opened new opportunities. History shows that when short-term fear leads to market mispricing, patient long-term capital often steps in. In such times, private markets can serve as a haven for investors who focus on long-term value instead of short-term swings, finding potential in lower valuations and structural changes.

Learn from history: Resilience and long-term returns of private markets

Looking at historical data, private markets have often demonstrated relative resilience during periods of economic crisis or high volatility. According to Vanguard, the 10-year rolling net internal rate of return (IRR) of global private equity funds exceeded that of public equities by approximately 6.7% (Figure 1).¹ This period encompassed several episodes of market stress, including the European sovereign debt crisis, the Chinese stock market turbulence, and the market volatility triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. During these high-volatility years, private equity funds performed relatively steadily, with long lock-up periods and structured arrangements helping investors withstand short-term market panic.

Vanguard’s report also shows that, despite short-term market turbulence, private equity exit activity rebounded significantly in 2024. In the U.S., total exit value reached approximately $413 billion, up nearly 49% from the previous year, with 1,501 exits completed.¹ This indicates that even during periods of market stress or uncertainty, funds were able to execute capital distributions and reinvestment, realizing value for investors. Furthermore, activity in the secondary market during periods of high volatility provides additional insight. In the first half of 2024, secondary market transaction volume reached $68 billion, a 58% year-over-year increase,¹ demonstrating that investors were still able to acquire mature assets at a discount during periods of market stress or liquidity constraints.

Vanguard’s capital market model further projects that over the next ten years, the median annual return of global private equity will be approximately 8.9%, higher than the 5.4% expected for global public equities.¹ This suggests that, even in high-uncertainty environments, private market products have the potential to deliver relatively stable excess returns through long-term investment and structured strategies. Overall, these historical data indicate that during crises or periods of market volatility, private markets not only demonstrate resilience but also provide opportunities for investors with a long-term perspective. Long-term lock-ups and systematic investment approaches allow capital to navigate short-term fluctuations and accumulate value over time.

Investing with patience and staying rational through volatility

Periods of uncertainty often test investors’ discipline more than their analytical skills. After major market shocks, it is common to see capital retreat from risk assets, driven by fear rather than fundamentals. Yet, history repeatedly shows that those who stay invested and avoid emotional decisions, tend to achieve stronger long-term outcomes. Morningstar’s annual Mind the Gap study finds that over the 10-year period ended December 31, 2024, the average investor typically earned 1.2% less per year than the funds they own, largely because of poorly timed purchases and sales.² This illustrates how short-term reactionary behavior can erode returns.

Vanguard’s 2025 Private Equity Market Outlook further illustrates this point. As shown in Figure 2, the longer the investment horizon, the greater the performance advantage of private equity over public markets. While short-term results may vary due to market conditions, private equity has delivered consistently higher returns over ten- and twenty-year periods.¹ This pattern demonstrates the strength of patient, long-term investing and the value of staying committed during periods of uncertainty.

For individual investors, the message is clear: volatility is temporary, but compounding is lasting. Maintaining a long-term perspective and avoiding impulsive decisions are essential to realizing the full potential of private market investments.

If you would like to understand how private market strategies can fit into a long-term portfolio, explore our latest insights and educational resources on private investing.

References:
¹Vanguard 2025 private equity market outlook
²File Download

This article is for general informational purposes only and has not been independently verified to ensure its accuracy and fairness. This article does not constitute any advice or recommendation from ADDX or ICHX Tech Pte. Ltd. (“ICHX”) or any of its affiliates. Please consult your own professional advisors about the suitability of any investment product/securities/ instruments for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. No representation, warranty or other assurances of any kind, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness, adequacy, reliability validity or availability of any information in this article. Under no circumstance shall ADDX or ICHX bear any liability to the reader for any loss or damage of any kind incurred as a result of the use or reliance on any information provided in this article. This article may not be modified, reproduced, copied, distributed, in whole or in part and no commercial use or benefit may be derived from this article without the prior written permission of ADDX and ICHX. ADDX and ICHX reserve all rights to this article.

The transition of private market assets onto public blockchains requires a new generation of infrastructure that balances compliance with user empowerment. This whitepaper presents the ADDX Go Wallet, a pioneering self-custody solution designed specifically for the era of tokenized Real-World Assets (RWAs). It moves beyond the limitations of existing platforms to provide a secure, compliant, and user-centric gateway to the decentralized economy.

The ADDX Go Wallet is built on a robust Multi-Party Computation (MPC) framework that eliminates single points of failure while embedding regulatory oversight directly into its architecture. Its key innovation lies in using Soul-Bound Tokens (SBTs) to transform the wallet into an intelligent access tool, one that programmatically verifies investor eligibility before allowing interaction with regulated securities. This "compliance-by-design" approach is reinforced by a smart contract-level backstop, rendering non-compliant investments impossible.

Validated in a Proof of Concept aligned with the principles of MAS's Project Guardian, the ADDX Go Wallet demonstrates its readiness to set a new market standard. It offers financial institutions and investors a scalable, interoperable, and user-friendly platform that finally unlocks the promise of a truly global and liquid market for private assets.

Executive Summary

This paper details the architecture, security framework, and validated results of the ADDX Go Proof of Concept (PoC), a self-custody system engineered to address the fundamental infrastructure deficit in the tokenized Real-World Asset (RWA) market. Historically, private market platforms have operated on private, permissioned blockchains, which provided secure yet isolated "walled gardens." This paper contends that the subsequent phase of market expansion necessitates bridging these regulated assets to public blockchains.

The PoC validates a hybrid Multi-Party Computation and Threshold Signature Scheme (MPC-TSS) wallet architecture designed to serve as this critical conduit. Employing a {2,3}-threshold scheme, it establishes a "Compliance Bridge" for real-time policy enforcement while providing an "Escape Hatch" that ensures a provably non-custodial state for users. We elaborate on how this architecture securely anchors on-chain identity via Soul-Bound Tokens (SBTs) to programmatically govern user access to regulated offerings. Furthermore, we provide a thorough analysis of the security model, addressing risks such as collusion and application-layer threats. The outcomes of the PoC affirm the viability of this model as a secure, compliant, and scalable foundation to unlock the full potential of the RWA economy.

View / download the full report, 'ADDX Go: Pioneering Self-Custody in Private Markets with The Industry Leading Compliant-Ready Wallet' by ADDX here.

ADDX is a Singapore-headquartered investment platform that enables accredited investors to access private markets, alternative assets, and other differentiated investments at lower entry points. Through an app and web platform, investors can discover high-quality products spanning private equity, private credit, real estate, hedge funds, structured products, cash alternatives, fixed income and more. By using tokenisation technology, ADDX lowers barriers to traditionally institutional-grade investments, empowering investors to build, diversify and grow their portfolios. ADDX is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and is open to all non-US accredited and institutional investors.

Navigating the new cycle

Uncertainty has become the defining feature of global capital markets in 2025, as investors adapt to changing economic signals. Inflation has moderated over the past year, and major global central banks have entered a rate-cutting cycle, with many accelerating their pace of reductions. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in September 2025, and subsequent employment data showing deterioration has reinforced expectations of further easing ahead.¹ In this macro environment, public markets, due to their more immediate trading and frequent information disclosures, have already reflected policy expectations and corporate earnings pressures. In contrast, private markets, due to lagged valuation updates, typically experience delayed adjustments. This suggests that the coming quarters will be a critical repricing phase for private markets. McKinsey’s 2025 Global Private Markets Report notes that while fundraising in 2024 fell to its lowest level since 2016, actual capital deployment by private funds still saw double-digit growth.² This indicates that long-term capital remains confident in private markets, seeking new entry windows amid volatility.

Institutional capital, which comprises sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and top-tier family offices with a long-term investment perspective, often captures these new cycle opportunities first due to their foresight and resource advantages. Their capital flows not only reveal cutting-edge market trends but also provide valuable signals for other investors. So, what are their latest moves, and which assets are they targeting?

Institutional capital’s playbook: Investment trends
In the new private market cycle, the investment logic of institutional capital is manifesting through three key dimensions. These trends offer unique references for individual investors seeking to understand the market and evaluate allocations.

1. Record-breaking private secondaries transactions: A key channel for improved transparency and potentially shorter liquidity horizons

Secondaries allow investors to purchase existing stakes in private equity funds or direct company investments. From LP-led transactions that provide discounted entry into existing funds to GP-led deals that deliver exposure to high-quality assets, secondaries create distinct opportunities to engage with mature investments and attractive return profiles.

In the first half of 2025, global private secondary market transaction volume reached $103 billion, a 51% year-on-year increase, setting a record for the period.³ Jefferies notes that this figure not only reflects institutions’ accelerated entry but also indicates market acceptance of private secondary stake pricing. Meanwhile, GP-led transactions reached approximately $47 billion in the first half, up 68% year-on-year,³ further highlighting the trend of managers extending investment periods for high-quality assets through continuation funds. According to William Blair’s 2025 Secondary Market Report survey, global private secondary market transaction volume in 2024 was approximately $156 billion, with market participants expecting it to rise to about $175 billion in 2025, a roughly 13% increase.⁴

Private equity secondaries are emerging as a segment to watch, as growing institutional capital flows signal the market’s expanding importance. At the same time, investment platforms like ADDX are beginning to open secondary opportunities to individual investors.

2. Private credit with floating rate structures remains attractive  

Although major central banks have entered a rate-cutting cycle, current interest rates remain relatively high. For instance, the Federal Reserve’s latest benchmark rate is around 4.5%, and even with gradual cuts, it remains significantly higher than the sub-2% levels seen for much of 2010–2021.⁵ Similarly, policy rates from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are in the early stages of decline from their highest levels in a decade.^6,7 This means newly issued private credit assets can still lock in coupon returns notably above historical averages.

Institutional capital’s investment trends confirm this. According to Private Debt Investor’s H1 2025 report, institutional allocations to private credit rose from 5.1% in H1 2024 to 5.7%, with sovereign wealth funds showing particularly strong growth, increasing from 4.2% to 6.9%.⁸ Major alternative asset managers like Blackstone have also increased their credit strategy allocations, with approximately half of their Q1 2025 capital inflows directed to credit and insurance segments.⁹

These signals indicate that institutional capital is actively increasing its allocation to private credit, viewing it as a key asset class that combines stable cash flows with strategic flexibility in the new cycle, marked by rate cuts and evolving credit dynamics.

3. Thematic investing takes off

Beyond secondary markets and credit assets, institutional capital is increasingly focusing on long-term, structural thematic opportunities, such as energy transition, sustainable infrastructure, and artificial intelligence. Preqin’s Asset Allocation Outlook 2025 report emphasizes that institutional investors’ preference for infrastructure, sustainable infrastructure, and energy transition themes continues to rise, making them critical components of future allocations.¹⁰ Approximately 75% of surveyed institutional investors have made sustainability a core consideration in their private market investment decisions, with energy transition and green infrastructure among the most prioritized areas.¹²

In the AI sector, PitchBook data shows that venture capital (VC) investments in AI/ML startups accounted for 35.7% of global VC deals in 2024, indicating that creative technology themes remain highly valued by smart capital in growth-stage investments.¹¹ Meanwhile, S&P Global Market Intelligence data indicates that private equity investors are prioritizing investments in the infrastructure supporting AI's expansion, particularly data centers, with private equity-backed global data center M&A transaction volumes reaching $18.15 billion in 2024, the highest total in at least five years.¹³

These trends suggest that individual investors considering private market allocations should not only focus on asset classes (e.g., credit vs. equity) but also evaluate the long-term certainty of thematic opportunities (driven by policy and technological innovation), as these areas often provide strong moats and compounding growth potential across cycles.

Lessons from institutional capital

The private markets in 2025 are entering a new cycle. Institutional investors have already demonstrated their allocation preferences: seeking seasoned investments and attractive return profiles in secondary markets, pursuing stable cash flows in private credit, and increasing exposure to long-term themes like energy transition, sustainable infrastructure, and artificial intelligence. While not exhaustive, these trends outline several representative paths for institutional investors today.

For individual investors, understanding the logic behind institutional capital and gradually allocating through compliant, transparent investment platforms is the true path to navigating cycles and capturing long-term returns.

References:
¹https://www.reuters.com/world/china/dollar-edges-up-with-us-inflation-report-tap -2025-08-11/  
²https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/private-capital/our-insights/global-private-markets-report  
³https://www.jefferies.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2025/08/Jefferies-Global-Secondary-Market-Review-July-2025.pdf
⁴https://www.williamblair.com/-/media/downloads/ib/2025/williamblair-pca-secondary-market-report-survey-march-2025.pdf
⁵https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=ECONOMICS%3AUSINTR  
⁶https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02802/
⁷https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
⁸https://media.privatedebtinvestor.com/uploads/2025/07/h1-2025-investor-report-pdi.pdf
⁹https://www.blackstone.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/04/Blackstone1Q25EarningsPressRelease.pdf
¹⁰https://www.preqin.com/insights/research/reports/asset-allocation-outlook-2025
¹¹https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/ai-startups-grabbed-a-third-of-global-vc-dollars-in-2024
¹²https://www.avivainvestors.com/en-gb/capabilities/private-markets/private-markets-study-2025/
¹³https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/6/venture-capital-seeks-ai-winners-as-private-equity-makes-infrastructure-play-89907740

This article is for general informational purposes only and has not been independently verified to ensure its accuracy and fairness. This article does not constitute any advice or recommendation from ADDX or ICHX Tech Pte. Ltd. (“ICHX”) or any of its affiliates. Please consult your own professional advisors about the suitability of any investment product/securities/ instruments for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. No representation, warranty or other assurances of any kind, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness, adequacy, reliability validity or availability of any information in this article. Under no circumstance shall ADDX or ICHX bear any liability to the reader for any loss or damage of any kind incurred as a result of the use or reliance on any information provided in this article. This article may not be modified, reproduced, copied, distributed, in whole or in part and no commercial use or benefit may be derived from this article without the prior written permission of ADDX and ICHX. ADDX and ICHX reserve all rights to this article.

Private markets are evolving rapidly in 2025. After years of cautious investing due to economic uncertainty, many investors are now turning their attention to growth. Global private market assets are projected to grow from $13 trillion today to over $20 trillion by 2030, supported by easing monetary conditions and resurgence in deal flow.¹ Yet, trade tensions and policy shifts remain challenges, making a thoughtful strategy essential. How can investors position themselves to capture opportunities in this dynamic landscape?

In recent years, due to high market volatility, geopolitical tensions, and persistent inflation pressures, investors have become more cautious in their asset allocation. In such an uncertain economic environment, cash has been seen as a low-return but high-security asset for investors, and many investors have chosen to increase their cash holdings or spread risks to avoid potential losses. From HSBC’s survey in March 2024 across 11 markets, 32% of individual investors’ portfolios are allocated to cash (Figure 1), although those planning to rebalance portfolios within the next year say they will invest 54% of this cash, on average.²  

This cautious approach worked during tough times but limited asset growth. Despite a 24 percent drop in private market fundraising in 2024,³ reflecting investor caution, this decline is a lagging indicator, often tied to slower cash flows from exits.  Meanwhile, private equity gained momentum, with deal values rising 37% and exits increasing 34% to 468 billion dollars in 2024 (Figure 2), reversing two years of declines.⁴ This rebound in part fueled by lower interest rates after Federal Reserve cuts, signals a shift toward growth-focused strategies. Additionally, according to the American Investment Council, over the 10 years ending in 2023, private equity delivered 15.2% annual returns, real estate 9.6%, far outpacing cash yields of 1 to 3% in 2024.⁵ Thus, investors holding cash may miss these opportunities as fund managers deploy record levels of unused capital into dynamic markets.

Private equity and venture capital: Positioning for growth

While venture capital continues to fuel innovation through investments in startups. Over the past few years, both PE and VC have faced significant challenges but have shown signs of recovery. Global private equity fundraising fell for the third consecutive year in 2024, while deal activity, after two years of sharp declines, showed signs of recovery.⁶ Venture capital faced similar headwinds, with both deal count and the growth in deal value experiencing a larger decline than other private equity sub-asset classes globally.³ Exits were limited, with private equity distributions to limited partners falling short of capital calls for eight years straight until 2024.¹

Looking ahead, analysts forecast continued recovery, with private equity benefiting from a supportive rate environment and the restart of mergers, acquisitions, and initial public offerings.¹ Deal activity is expected to accelerate, as lower borrowing costs (following Federal Reserve rate cuts) tend to encourage more entries and exits, potentially pushing global private markets assets under management from $13 trillion today to over $20 trillion by 2030.¹ Venture capital is poised for a return to dealmaking and exits, with tech IPO momentum and M&A in AI-driven sectors leading the way.⁷ Generative AI funding has already surpassed 2024 totals in the first half of 2025, accounting for 45% of VC investments alongside software and development tools,⁸ as corporates and venture firms target capital-intensive plays in applied AI and hard tech.

Overall, the sector's long-term appeal lies in diversification and performance, with 30% of limited partners planning to increase allocations in the next year amid evolving fund structures like continuation vehicles and AI-enabled value creation.³

Private credit: From downside protection to high returns

Private credit is increasingly viewed as a core allocation and an important source of high yields, helping to meet financing needs not fully served by traditional banks.  

From 2020 to 2024, its global market grew from $1 trillion to approximately $1.6 trillion, driven by demand for direct lending and asset-backed loans as banks tightened lending amid high interest rates.^1,9 Private credit delivered 8 to 10% yields in 2024, far exceeding fixed income’s 2.1% annualized returns over the decade ending 2023.^10,11

Despite tighter margins in buyout financing, deal volume rose in 2024, particularly for mid-sized company acquisitions, reflecting strong investor appetite. In 2025, stable interest rates following Federal Reserve cuts are expected to sustain this growth, with private credit projected to reach $2.3 trillion by 2028.¹² Opportunities in small and mid-sized businesses, real estate, and infrastructure loans are expanding, offering diversified returns through funds and structured products. Thus, if investors prioritize cash over private credit, they tend to risk missing these high-yield opportunities in a dynamic lending landscape.

Real estate and infrastructure: Building for the future

Real estate and infrastructure have shifted from safe, steady investments to engines of growth. From 2022 to 2024, global real estate transactions increased 11% to $707 billion in 2024, driven by demand for logistics and data centers.³ Infrastructure deal values rose 18% in 2024, with renewable energy projects like solar and wind leading the surge.³ Over the decade ending 2023, real estate delivered 9.6% annual returns,¹¹ far outpacing cash yields and fixed income’s returns.  

In 2025, the green data center market reached $85.68 billion, and is on track to reach $279.88 billion by 2030, reflecting a 15.99% CAGR due to AI and cloud computing needs.¹³ Looking ahead, data centers tends to be set for steady expansion, supported by government incentives for accelerating the development of data center infrastructure.¹⁴ These assets provide strong returns and stability, appealing to investors seeking growth amid uncertainty.

Hedge funds and alternatives: Finding new wins

Hedge funds and alternative investments, such as commodities and digital assets, have shifted from shielding against risk to driving strong returns. Hedge funds delivered an average return of 10.7% in 2024 through November, compared to 5.7% in the same period of 2023.¹⁵

Looking ahead, hedge funds are expected to play a critical role in investor portfolios, capitalizing on policy-driven opportunities and deregulation, while benefiting from sustained artificial intelligence fervor.  

Commodities tied to energy transition, like copper, are also set to expand. These assets offer investors a way to capture growth and protect against inflation in uncertain times.¹

Conclusion

Private markets in 2025 are entering a new phase. After a period of caution marked by elevated cash holdings and weak fundraising, lower interest rates and improving exit activity have reopened paths to growth. Private equity and venture capital are showing signs of renewed momentum, private credit is gaining traction as investors seek higher yields, and real estate and infrastructure are supported by trends in digitalization and the energy transition. Hedge funds and alternatives are also adapting with technology-driven strategies. For investors, the opportunity lies in shifting from defense to offense through selective deployment, diversification and disciplined risk management.

References:
[1]  https://www.blackrock.com/ca/institutional/en/literature/whitepaper/2025-private-markets-outlook-stamped.pdf  
[2] https://www.wealthbriefing.com/html/article.php/cash-dominates-affluent-investors'-portfolios
[3] https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/private-capital/our-insights/global-private-markets-report
[4] https://www.bain.com/insights/topics/global-private-equity-report/
[5] https://www.ai-cio.com/news/private-equity-continues-as-top-performer-for-pension-plans-study-says/
[6] https://www.bain.com/insights/outlook-is-a-recovery-starting-to-take-shape-global-private-equity-report-2025/  
[7]https://www.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpmorgan/documents/cb/insights/banking/commercial-banking/jpm-cb-docs-q2-2025-venture-capital-update-monitor-ada.pdf
[8] https://www.ey.com/en_ie/newsroom/2025/06/generative-ai-vc-funding-49-2b-h1-2025-ey-report
[9] https://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-us/individual-investor/insights/articles/private-credit-outlook-2025-opportunity-growth.html  
[10] https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/nam/en/insights/markets-and-investing/why-private-credit-remains-a-strong-opportunity  
[11] https://www.investmentcouncil.org/icymi-media-outlets-highlight-aic-study-on-private-equitys-superior-returns-for-public-pensions/
[12]https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_evolutionofdirectlending.pdf
[13] https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/global-green-datacenter-market-industry
[14] https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/real-estate/commercial-real-estate/commercial-real-estate-trends  
[15] https://www.reuters.com/markets/hedge-funds-deliver-double-digit-returns-2024-2025-01-02/
[16] https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/critical-minerals-are-stuck-between-demand-hopes-oversupply-reality-2025-09-29/  

This article is for general informational purposes only and has not been independently verified to ensure its accuracy and fairness. This article does not constitute any advice or recommendation from ADDX or ICHX Tech Pte. Ltd. (“ICHX”) or any of its affiliates. Please consult your own professional advisors about the suitability of any investment product/securities/ instruments for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. No representation, warranty or other assurances of any kind, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness, adequacy, reliability validity or availability of any information in this article. Under no circumstance shall ADDX or ICHX bear any liability to the reader for any loss or damage of any kind incurred as a result of the use or reliance on any information provided in this article. This article may not be modified, reproduced, copied, distributed, in whole or in part and no commercial use or benefit may be derived from this article without the prior written permission of ADDX and ICHX. ADDX and ICHX reserve all rights to this article.

Investors today face a mix of challenges: sticky inflation, shifting global growth, and heightened volatility in public markets. On top of this, private real estate has seen its returns come under pressure in recent years with rising interest rates and tighter lending conditions that have hit valuations and slowed capital flows.

Many investors have questioned whether the asset class still delivers. In today’s environment however, private real estate stands out again not just as a diversifier, but as an asset class with a distinctive blend of income, resilience, and growth potential. Let’s take a look at key reasons why this asset class is finding renewed relevance.

The hybrid advantage

Private real estate has a unique hybrid quality, combining bond-like characteristics with equity-like growth potential.

• Bond-like income: Leases and tenant contracts generate recurring cash flow
• Equity-like upside: Property values can rise, driving capital appreciation

According to Hines Research, private real estate is a “natural bridge between the two traditional buckets of stocks and bonds for private wealth portfolios, as they move forward from the traditional 60/40 compositions to embrace the inclusion of a higher percentage of investments in alternatives.”¹

These features position real estate uniquely among alternatives - it can generate current income while still capturing upside from long-term appreciation.

Protecting purchasing power with real estate income

In an environment with persistent inflation, one of the biggest investor concerns is erosion of purchasing power. Here, real estate shows its strength:

• Rental income tracks inflation: Lease structures often allow for rent increases tied to consumer price indices or market resets.
• Essential nature of assets: Housing, logistics, and even offices in the right locations meet enduring economic needs, providing durable demand.
• Predictable distributions: Long-term contracts provide cash flows less sensitive to daily market swings.

With both income and valuations tied to real economic activity rather than public market sentiment, private real estate has historically shown greater resilience through periods of volatility. This resilience is further reinforced by real estate’s ability to diversify both by geography and by strategy.

Diversification within the diversifier

Investors often speak of diversification across equities, bonds, and alternatives, but diversification can also happen within real estate itself.

• By geography: More than two-thirds of global investible commercial property lies outside the US. Hines Research highlights that global private real estate has shown the capacity to reduce overall portfolio risk by investing across markets with economic cycles that are not closely correlated.¹
• By strategy:

              - Core/Core-plus: Stable income with moderate appreciation.

              - Value-added: Income and appreciation, amplified by value creation.

              - Opportunistic (development): Appreciation driven.

              - Private debt: Income driven.

This breadth makes private real estate not just a diversifier, but a multi-layered asset class where investors can choose risk and return profiles that fit their objectives. Such diversification does more than balance risk and return, it creates a platform to capture opportunities emerging from global macro shifts like AI, deglobalisation, and sustainability.

Macro shifts creating tailwinds

Several structural shifts are shaping the opportunity set in 2025 and beyond:

• AI and data-driven logistics: The rise of AI is accelerating demand for smarter, tech-enabled supply chains, boosting the need for advanced logistics hubs, warehouses, and data-driven industrial facilities.
• Deglobalisation: Supply chain realignment is driving demand for logistics and industrial space in new hubs.
• Sustainability: Regulations and tenant preferences are accelerating demand for energy-efficient “green” buildings, creating opportunities for forward-looking assets.
• Demographics: Ageing populations support sectors like senior housing, while urbanisation continues to fuel demand for multifamily housing.
• Capital market constraints: Banks are retreating from some forms of lending, creating space for private real estate debt strategies to step in.

These themes highlight that real estate is not static. It evolves with global economic and social currents.

What this means for investors

Bringing these elements together, private real estate offers key qualities many investors seek today: income resilience with cash flows often linked to inflation, diversification in practice through exposure across regions and strategies, and potentially attractive entry points as capital costs reset lower and new opportunities emerge.

As highlighted by Hines Research, the asset class “can perform well even in a paradigm shift to higher equilibrium inflation, higher uncertainty, and lower regional economic correlation.” While private real estate carries risks such as illiquidity and sector-specific headwinds, it remains an allocation with renewed relevance.

At ADDX, we continue to expand access to high-quality investment opportunities. Real estate is one of the pillars of this effort, offering tangible, resilient, and globally diversified exposure and a clear reason why private real estate is back in focus for investors today.

References:
¹Hines Research, “Why Real Estate: Finding Value Amid Uncertainty,” July 2025.

This article is for general informational purposes only and has not been independently verified to ensure its accuracy and fairness. This article does not constitute any advice or recommendation from ADDX or ICHX Tech Pte. Ltd. (“ICHX”) or any of its affiliates. Please consult your own professional advisors about the suitability of any investment product/securities/ instruments for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. No representation, warranty or other assurances of any kind, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness, adequacy, reliability validity or availability of any information in this article. Under no circumstance shall ADDX or ICHX bear any liability to the reader for any loss or damage of any kind incurred as a result of the use or reliance on any information provided in this article. This article may not be modified, reproduced, copied, distributed, in whole or in part and no commercial use or benefit may be derived from this article without the prior written permission of ADDX and ICHX. ADDX and ICHX reserve all rights to this article.